2018年11月26日 第784期
市場動態
美國首次申領失業金救濟人數連升兩周
中國商務部表示不會允許世貿組織改革取消中國作為發展中經濟體的權利
本周焦點
衛星圖像數據能否為投資帶來優勢?
財經文章
   
 
   
   
主要股市表現一覽
   
本周重要經濟數據
 
 
index_778a
環球市場動態

股市

  • 美國: 美國感恩節翌日,美股週五只開半日市,受國際油價及科網股下挫影響,美市表現一般。全週計,道指跌4.44%,報24,285.95點。標普500指數跌3.79%,報點2,632.56。納指跌4.26 %,報6,938.98點。
  • 歐洲: 因美國感恩節假期休市,加上投資者對英國脫歐以及意大利預算危機重拾憂慮情緒。全週計,英國富時100指數跌0.87%,德國DAX指數跌1.31 %,法國CAC40指數跌1.56 %。STOXX 600指數全週跌1.04%,報353.98點。
  • 亞洲: 美股走低, 令投資者對股票市場失去信心,拖累亞太股市。全週計,日經225指數跌0.16 %,報21,646.55點。MSCI 亞太區指數跌0.86 %,報150.56點。

 

債券

  • 美國: 市場對美國聯儲局加息預期變得保守,令美國10年期國債孳息率下跌。全週計,美國10年期國債孳息率跌2個基點,報3.050 %。
  • 歐元區: 因歐元區企業活動數據疲弱,令市場擔憂經濟的前景,壓抑對歐洲央行升息的預期。全週計,德國10年期國債孳息率跌3個基點,報0.339%。

商品

  • 油價:原油供應過剩, 加上需求因經濟增長放慢而減少。全週計,紐約期油跌11.04 %,收報每桶50.42美元。

 

貨幣

  • 美元:美國股市大市跌令投資者轉投具有避險功能的美元。全週計,美匯指數升0.468%,報 96.916。
  • 中國:G20峰會在即,中美貿易緊張局面有望緩和。全週計,人民幣兌1美元升0.056%,報6.948。

 

與經濟相關新聞

  • 美國:國家商務部公布,11月20日,美國商務部在其網站公布對華鋼製貨架(Steel Racks)反補貼調查初裁結果。中國兩家強制應訴企業的補貼率為分別為5.04%和10.45%。
  • 美國:Markit數據顯示,美國11月綜合採購經理人指數(PMI)由10月的54.9跌至54.4,為兩個月低位,低於市場預期的56。
  • 美國:美國抵押貸款銀行協會(MBA)公布,截至11月16日止當周,美國抵押貸款申請指數按周續降0.1%至316.4。
  • 美國:美國勞工部公布,美國截至11月17日止當周首次申領失業金救濟人數連增兩周,按周續增3千人,至總數22.4萬人,多於市場預期的21.5萬人。
  • 歐元區:歐盟領導人周日在特別峰會上一致通過了英國脫歐協議草案,並警告稱如果協議遭英國議會否決,將不會重啟談判。
  • 歐元區:歐元區製造業和服務業採購經理指數跌至兩年來最低,並且德國第三季度經濟環比下降0.2%,為2015年以來首次萎縮,受出口和私人消費疲軟拖累。
  • 歐元區:Markit數據顯示,歐元區11月製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)初值續降至51.5,創30個月低,市場原先預期企穩前值52。期內,製造業產出由10月51.3,降至50.4,增速為65個月最低。
  • 日本:Nikkei Markit數據顯示,日本11月製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)初值意外創兩年低,由10月所創半年高位52.9,急降至51.8,為2016年11月以來新低,市場原先預期企穩52.9。
  • 日本:日本總務省公布,日本10月消費物價指數(CPI)同比升幅再度加快至1.4%(前值升1.2%),創近期新高,連升第25個月,符合市場預期。
  • 新加坡:新加坡貿易及工業部(MTI)數據顯示,新加坡今年第三季國內生產總值(GDP)由4.1%放緩至2.2%,遜於市場預期的年增2.4%。
中國市場動態
經濟相關新聞
  • 中國商務部表示,中國支持世貿組織改革,改革應該捍衛多邊主義體系,不會允許世貿組織改革取消中國作為發展中經濟體的權利。

  • 國家外管局公布,今年10月,中國外匯市場(不含外幣對市場)總計成交17.42萬億元人民幣。
 
 
 

衛星圖像數據能否為投資帶來優勢?

 

國際油價從10月高位至今急挫近三成引起了各方面的關注,但令筆者感興趣的並不是美國頁岩油供應增加,也不是因全球經濟放緩導致需求疲軟,而是一則新聞談論對沖基金經理及交易員如何通過使用人工智能(AI)掃描和分析衛星圖像(例如,查看浮頂式儲油罐的陰影變化),而更實時地估算全球原油庫存的變化,從而在當前油價下跌中獲利。雖然這種衛星圖像智能分析對市場來說並不是什麼新玩意,但隨著數據增加和圖像分辨率的提高,這些分析的準確性和可靠性將不斷提高。

圖一. 衛星圖像分析原油庫存的變化
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來源: Via Satellite

 

圖二. 衛星圖像顯示OPEC原油庫存量10份中同比增長11%
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來源: Via Satellite

 

UBS瑞銀是其中一間較早使用衛星數據來預測季度收益的投資機構之一。在2010年,瑞銀的分析員便透過衛星圖片數據計算每月沃爾瑪停車場的汽車數量並參考失業率等資料來預估沃爾瑪的營運情況,當時便引起市場關注。從那時起,一些商品交易員及對沖基金經理也開始使用衛星圖像情報對軟硬商品的供應、需求和風險進行更精準及領先的預測。現在,其使用範圍甚至擴展到傳統的資產管理公司來配置資產及行業投資、政府機構用於防止非法採礦、以及消費者,金融服務和農業行業的企業用於供應鏈監控,風險控制和改進提高生產等。

衛星圖像是大數據革命的一部分。對許多投資者來說,這些數據是否有助於獲得超額回報往往是一個問號。答案取決於這些衛星圖像數據的準確性、一致性、成本及普及性。當然,我們認為大數據分析仍有很大的改進空間。我們可以預期,隨著這項技術日趨成熟,數據成本逐漸降低,更多的資產及基金經理將意識到衛星數據可為他們提供很好的交易優勢。擁有更多信息的投資者可以作出更具前瞻性的預測,讓他們有機會在其他投資者獲得官方數據之前進行投資步署而獲得超額回報。目前,衛星圖像或大數據可能無法為公眾投資者帶來多少直接利益,但我們相信投資者可間接考慮投資擁有大數據技術或相關業務的公司來實現這一趨勢,當然投資前需做好功課及風險分析。如果選股對投資者來說過於復雜或欠缺信心,那麼另一個簡單的方法就是投資大數據驅動的基金*,甚至是考慮投資大數據或科技基金等。雖然這類型的基金或股票的波動性較高,但作為長期投資組合的一部分,可能有改助善你的投資組合的風險回報。

 

圖三. . Indxx AI Big Data Index 自2016年5月以來跑贏納斯達克指數
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來源: 彭博社

*使用大數據分析和機器學習來追尋求Alpha的基金

 

 
 
 
富達免費基金 只益美國公民
 

富達免費基金自8月面世至今,規模已分別有13.5億及3.9億美元,吸金能力頗高。富達是美國大型基金公司,管理基金規模高達2.61萬億美元,免費基金佔比微不足道,但先聲奪人,宣傳效果奇佳.....

 
 
投資最忌贏粒糖輸間廠
 

過去一兩年股市暢旺,不少財演開班搵食,有課程更涉及期權等投資工具。誠然,期權運用得宜可作對沖之用,但有部份「老師」不但將期權變成投機工具,更包裝成穩打穩紮的投資投策略.....

 
 
 

 
 
截至2018/11/23
 
股市指數

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

美國道瓊斯工業
24,285.95
-4.44%
-1.75%
美國標準普爾500
2,632.56
-3.79%
-1.54%
美國納斯達克指數
6,938.98
-4.26%
0.52%
英國金融時報
6,952.86
-0.87%
-9.56%
德國DAX
11,192.69
-1.31%
-13.35%
法國CAC
4,946.95
-1.56%
-6.88%
日本日經平均225
21,646.55
-0.16%
-4.91%
澳洲ASX 200
5,716.21
-0.25%
-5.75%
南韓綜合
2,057.48
-1.67%
-16.62%
香港恆生
25,927.68
-0.98%
-13.34%
香港國企指數
10,388.53
-1.84%
-11.28%
中國上證綜合
2,579.48
-3.72%
-22.00%
中國深證綜合
1,335.15
-5.32%
-29.70%
台灣加權
9,667.30
-1.32%
-9.17%
印度Sensex
34,981.02
-1.34%
2.71%
俄羅斯RTS
1,113.52
-1.89%
-3.54%
巴西Bovespa
86,230.22
-2.58%
12.86%
以本地貨幣計算

定息產品表現/同業拆息

最新水平

一週變幅(bp)

2017年12月31日水平

美國-2年期
2.81%
1
1.88%
美國-10年期
3.04%
-2
2.41%
德國-10年期
0.34%
-3
0.43%
日本-10年期
0.10%
0
0.05%
Libor–隔夜
2.18%
0
1.43%
Libor–1個月
2.32%
2
1.56%
Libor–3個月
2.69%
5
1.69%
Euribor–1個月
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3個月
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1個月
2.69%
1
4.94%
Shibor–3個月
3.07%
5
4.91%
Hibor–隔夜
0.69%
24
1.34%
Hibor–1個月
1.08%
4
1.19%
Hibor–3個月
1.98%
1
1.31%
注意: 1 bp = 0.01%

商品(現貨價)/貨幣

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

原油(紐約商品交易所)
50.42
-11.04%
-16.55%
黃金 ($/oz)
1223.19
0.14%
-6.13%
標普高盛商品指數
403.5558
-6.67%
-8.79%
RJ/CRB商品指數
185.6449
-4.06%
-5.74%
波羅的海乾散貨指數
1093
6.01%
-19.99%
歐元兌美元
1.135
0.19%
-5.26%
英鎊兌美元
1.2838
0.18%
-4.88%
澳元兌美元
0.7223
-0.44%
-7.60%
美元兌日圓
112.86
-0.35%
0.29%
資料來源:彭博
 
 
 
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
美國
經濟諮詢委員會消費者信心
27/11
消費者信心指數
29/11
MBA 貸款申請指數
28/11
失業率
30/11
 
GDP年化(季比)
28/11
核心CPI(年比)
30/11
 
個人消費
28/11
日本
日經日本製造業採購經理人指數
26/11
 
首次申請失業救濟金人數
29/11
PPI服務年比
27/11
芝加哥採購經理人指數
30/11
失業率
30/11
歐元區
M3貨幣供給(年比)
28/11
中國
Swift全球支付人民幣
29/11
  
經濟信心指數
29/11
綜合採購經理人指數
30/11
 
 
 
 
 
 
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注意:我們的文章以及專欄內容並不是投資建議,亦非認同有關的投資策略。基金價格可升亦可跌,過往業績並不代表將來表現。作投資決定前,請先咨詢閣下之專業投資顧問,並閱讀有關基金的說明書及年報。

風險披露聲明:投資者應留意,部分產品透過衍生工具例如期貨合約及期權行使槓桿效應,其投資風險高於其他投資。基金價格可升亦可跌,基金並不保證可達致其整體投資目標。
 
 
 
26 November 2018 Issue 784
Market Commentary
The US initial jobless claims have increased for two months
Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that China will not allow WTO reforms to abolish China's rights as a developing economy
Highlight of the Week
The use of big data and AI in investing
Financial Editorials
   
 
   
   
Market Performance at a Glance
   
Important Economic Releases This Week
   
 
 
 
Global Market Commentary

Equity

  • US: The US stock market only opened for half day on Friday. The performance of US stock market is not good due to the impact of international oil prices and the decline of the Internet stocks. For the whole week, the Dow fell 4.44% to 24,285.95 points. The S&P 500 index fell 3.79% to 2,632.56. The Nasdaq fell 4.26 percent to 6,938.98.
  • Europe: Investor worried about the Brexit and the Italian budget crisis. For the whole week, the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 0.87%, the German DAX index fell 1.31%, and the French CAC40 index fell 1.56%. The STOXX 600 index fell 1.04% for the week to 353.98 points.
  • Asia: Investors lose confidence towards the stock market due to the bad performance in US. Over the week, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.16 percent to 21,646.55 points. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.86 percent to 150.56 points.

 

Commodity

  • Oil: Due to the oversupply and demand reduction in crude oil. Over the week, New York oil futures fell by 11.04% to $50.42 a barrel.

Bonds

  • US: The market's expectations towards the Federal Reserve rate hike become conservative, causing the US 10-year bond yield fall. For the whole week, the US 10-year bond yield fell by 2 basis points to 3.050%.

  • Europe: Due to the weak performance of corporate activity in the Eurozone, the market is worried about the prospects of the economy and suppressed the expectations of the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. For the whole week, the German 10-year bond yield fell by 3 basis points to 0.339%.

Currency

  • US dollar: Investors switch their investment to US dollar due to the bad performance of US stock market. For the whole week, the Dollar Index rose 0.468% to 96.916.
  • China:The G20 summit is coming, the Sino-US trade tensions are expected to ease. For the whole week, the yuan rose 0.056% against the US dollar at 6.948.

 

Economic-related News

  • U.S: The US Department of Commerce revealed the preliminary results of anti-subsidy investigation into China-made steel racks on November 20th 2018. The subsidy rates received by two companies which came under the probe by mandatory manner are 5.04% and 10.45%.
  • U.S: According to Markit data, the US Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 54.4 in November from 54.9 in October, which is lower than the market expectations of 56.
  • U.S: The American Mortgage Bankers Association announced that the US mortgage application index fell by 0.1% per week to 316.4.
  • U.S: US Department of Labor announced that after seasonal adjustment, for the week ended 17 November, the initial jobless claims increased weekly by 3,000 to a total of 224,000, more than market projection of 215,000.
  • Euro-zone: EU leaders unanimously passed the draft of Brexit agreement at the special summit on Sunday and warned that if the agreement is rejected by the British parliament, negotiations will not be restarted.
  • Euro-zone: The Eurozone Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index fell to its lowest level in two years, and Germany’s economy index fell by 0.2% in the third quarter, which was dragged down by weak exports and private consumption.
  • Euro-zone: Markit data showed that the initial value of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in the Eurozone fell to 51.5 in November, a 30-month low, which is lower than the market expectation of 52. During the period, manufacturing output fell to 50.4 in November from 51.3O in October , which is the slowest growth rate within 65 months.
  • Japan: According to Nikkei Markit data, the Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index hits the two-year low in November, dropping from 52.9 in October to 51.8 in November, which is lower than the market expectation of 52.9.
  • Japan: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced that Japan’s consumer price index increased by 1.4% as expected in October, hitting a new high.
  • Singapore: According to the data of MTI, the Singapore's third quarter GDP growth is slow down from 4.1% to 2.2%, which is lower than the market expectation of 2.4%.
China Market Commentary
Economic-related news
  • The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that China would support the WTO reforms, the reforms should defend the multilateralism system, and will not allow WTO reforms to abolish China's rights as a developing economy.
  • According to the data of State Administrative of Foreign Exchange, the foreign exchange market of China (excluding inter-bank foreign currency market) aggregated transaction of RMB17.42 trillion in October 2018.
 
 
 

The use of big data and AI in investing

 

The recent plunge in crude oil price has been making a lot of market noise these days, but what caught me in is not about the increasing supply from U.S. shale nor weakening demand due to global economic slowdown. It was the news which talked about how some hedge fund managers made money from current decline in oil price, by using artificial intelligence (AI) to scan and analyse satellite images (e.g. looking at the shadows cast by floating-roof storage tanks) in order to help estimating the change in global crude inventories on a more real-time basis. Although this kind of satellite imagery intelligence is nothing really “new” to the market, the accuracy and reliability of these analysis continues to improve as big data scales and image resolution increases.

Figure 1. Oil tracking analytics from satellite imagery intelligence
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Source: Via Satellite

Figure 2.  Satellite image suggested OPEC stockpiles are 11% higher YoY
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Source: Orbital Insight Inc., Bloomberg

 

UBS investments was one of the very first to use satellite data to predict Walmart’s quarterly earnings in 2010, which count the number of cars in Walmart parking lot each month from the image captured and cross-referencing with the unemployment numbers. Since then, satellite imageries intelligences are also used by some commodities traders and hedge fund managers for making a more sophisticated forecast on the supply, demand and risk exposures of soft and hard commodity products. Now, the scope of use even expands to traditional asset managers for sector and asset allocation, government bodies for preventing illegal mining and corporates in consumer, financial services and agriculture industries for supply chain monitoring, risk control and productivity improvement etc.         

Satellite images are part of the big data revolution, and whether these data help to earn an excess return is always a question for many investors. The answers should depend on how wide spread these satellite feeds are, the cost and the consistency of these feeds. Of course, we see big data analysis still have ample room to improve. We can expect as this new technology getting more mature and the cost of data has gradually come down, more asset managers will realize the trading edge of satellite data. Investors with more information gives them a niche for making a better forecast, providing them an opportunity to invest and gain an excess return before the general public received the official data. For the time being, satellite imagery or big data may not give much direct benefit for public investors, but to ride on this trend, investors could consider investing in companies with big data technologies or have related business. If stock picking is too complicated for some investors, then an easy way is to simply investing in big data-driven funds* or even big data/technology fund as part of your portfolio for long-term investment.      

Figure 3. Indxx AI Big Data Index outperformed Nasdaq since May 2016
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Source: Bloomberg

 

*Funds that used big data analysis and machine learning to hunt out alpha.

 
 
 
富達免費基金 只益美國公民
 

富達免費基金自8月面世至今,規模已分別有13.5億及3.9億美元,吸金能力頗高。富達是美國大型基金公司,管理基金規模高達2.61萬億美元,免費基金佔比微不足道,但先聲奪人,宣傳效果奇佳.....

 
 
投資最忌贏粒糖輸間廠
 

過去一兩年股市暢旺,不少財演開班搵食,有課程更涉及期權等投資工具。誠然,期權運用得宜可作對沖之用,但有部份「老師」不但將期權變成投機工具,更包裝成穩打穩紮的投資投策略.....

 
 
 
As of 2018/11/23
 
Equity Indexes

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

USA DJIA
24,285.95
-4.44%
-1.75%
USA S&P500
2,632.56
-3.79%
-1.54%
USA NASDAQ
6,938.98
-4.26%
0.52%
UK FTSE 100
6,952.86
-0.87%
-9.56%
Germany DAX
11,192.69
-1.31%
-13.35%
France CAC
4,946.95
-1.56%
-6.88%
Japan Nikkei 225
21,646.55
-0.16%
-4.91%
Australia ASX 200
5,716.21
-0.25%
-5.75%
Korea KOSPI
2,057.48
-1.67%
-16.62%
Hong Kong Hang Seng
25,927.68
-0.98%
-13.34%
Hong Kong HSCEI
10,388.53
-1.84%
-11.28%
China SHCOMP
2,579.48
-3.72%
-22.00%
China SZCOMP
1,335.15
-5.32%
-29.70%
Taiwan Taipei Weighted
9,667.30
-1.32%
-9.17%
India Sensex
34,981.02
-1.34%
2.71%
Russia RTS
1,113.52
-1.89%
-3.54%
Brazil Bovespa
86,230.22
-2.58%
12.86%
In local currency terms

Fixed Income /Interbank Rate

Latest Level

Weekly Change (bp)

31 Dec 2017 Level

US–2 years
2.81%
1
1.88%
US–10 years
3.04%
-2
2.41%
German–10 years
0.34%
-3
0.43%
Japan–10 years
0.10%
0
0.05%
Libor–overnight
2.18%
0
1.43%
Libor–1 month
2.32%
2
1.56%
Libor–3 months
2.69%
5
1.69%
Euribor–1 month
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3 months
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1 month
2.69%
1
4.94%
Shibor–3 month
3.07%
5
4.91%
Hibor–overnight
0.69%
24
1.34%
Hibor–1 month
1.08%
4
1.19%
Hibor–3 months
1.98%
1
1.31%
Note: 1 bp = 0.01 percentage point

Commodity (Spot) / Currency

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

Crude oil (NYMEX)
50.42
-11.04%
-16.55%
Gold ($/oz)
1223.19
0.14%
-6.13%
S&P GS Commodity Idx
403.5558
-6.67%
-8.79%
RJ/CRB Commodity Idx
185.6449
-4.06%
-5.74%
BDIY – Baltic Dry Index
1093
6.01%
-19.99%
EUR – USD
1.135
0.19%
-5.26%
GBP – USD
1.2838
0.18%
-4.88%
AUD – USD
0.7223
-0.44%
-7.60%
USD – JPY
112.86
-0.35%
0.29%
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
 
 
 
 
Country/
Region
Economic Indicator
Date of Release

Country/Region

Economic Indicator
Date of Release
US
Conf. Board Consumer Confidence
27/11
Consumer Confidence
29/11
MBA Mortgage Applications
28/11
Unemployment Rate
30/11
GDP Annualized QoQ
28/11
CPI Core YoY
30/11
Personal Consumption
28/11
Japan
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg
26/11
Initial Jobless Claims
29/11
PPI Services YoY
27/11
Chicago Purchasing Manager
30/11
Jobless Rate
30/11
Eurozone
M3 Money Supply YoY
28/11
China
Swift Global Payments CNY
29/11
Economic Confidence
29/11
Composite PMI
30/11
 
 
 
 
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Risk Disclosure: Investors should be aware that some of the investment products exercise leverages through derivatives such as futures and options, so the risks involved in investing in such products may be higher than other investments. Fund prices may rise as well as fall. There is no guarantee that fund investments can achieve overall investment objectives.