2018年11月19日 第783期
市場動態
特朗普表示對解決兩國之間的貿易爭端感到樂觀
中國持有的美國國債連續第四個月下降
本周焦點
文翠珊失寵 硬脫歐風險增
財經文章
   
 
   
   
主要股市表現一覽
   
本周重要經濟數據
 
 
index_778a
環球市場動態

股市

  • 美國： 市場憂慮持續加息拖累環球經濟增長，加上紐約期油近日急跌，令能源股表現不及預期。全週計，道指跌2.22 %，報25,413.22點。標普500指數跌1.61 %，報點2,736.27。納指跌2.15 %，報7,247.87點。
  • 歐洲:英國脫歐前景不明影響大型銀行股價表現，加上美國晶片生產商Nvidia預告疲弱銷售，拖累歐洲股市。全週計，英國富時100指數跌1.29 %，德國DAX指數跌1.63 %，法國CAC40指數跌1.60 %。STOXX 600指數全週跌2.20%，報357.71點。
  • 亞洲: 亞太股市跟隨美市下跌。全週計，日經225指數跌2.56 %，報21,680.34點。MSCI 亞太區指數跌0.26 %，報151.87點。

 

債券

  • 美國： 美國聯儲局官員指憂慮環球經濟增長疲弱，或暗示將減慢加息幅度，債息下跌。全週計，美國10年期國債孳息率跌12個基點，報3.059 %。
  • 歐元區：因英國脫歐事務大臣辭職，使英國首相梅伊領導的政府在退歐問題上陷入混亂,拖累歐洲債券市場 。全週計，德國10年期國債孳息率跌4個基點，報0.366%。

商品

  • 油價：因原油供應過剩, 加上需求減少, 油價急速下跌。全週計，紐約期油跌6.20 %，收報每桶56.46美元。

 

貨幣

  • 美元：聯儲局副主席克拉里達（Richard Clarida）稱，利率正趨近中性水平，暗示局方明年要考慮暫停加息，其言論導致美元顯著滑落。全週計，美匯指數跌0.454%，報 96.465。
  • 中國：受需求轉弱影響，中國的利率可能會繼續下跌, 另外, 美國繼續升息令人民幣兌美元帶來下行壓力。全週計，人民幣兌1美元跌0.062%，報6.952。

 

與經濟相關新聞

  • 美國：美國總統特朗普稱，在收到中國回應其要求的清單後，他對解決兩國之間的貿易爭端感到樂觀。
  • 美國：聯儲會副主席Clarida表示，聯儲會需要繼續加息至利率水平能夠維持經濟的供需平衡，同時還需密切留意海外經濟增長放緩的情況。
  • 美國：聯儲會數據顯示，美國10月份製造業產值連續第五個月增長，是2011年以來最長連續增長，顯示第四季度開局良好。
  • 美國：紐約聯儲銀行季度性家庭債務與信用報告顯示，美國第三季總體家庭債務增長2,190億美元或1.6%，至總額達13.5萬億美元，再創紀錄高。
  • 歐元區：英國首相特雷莎·梅表示，對她領導權的挑戰將分散脫歐談判的精力，任何新首相都會面臨同樣問題，並敦促議會支持其脫歐協議。
  • 歐元區：歐洲央行總裁德拉吉預計未來幾年歐元區經濟將繼續成長，但需要非常密切地監控保護主義所帶來的風險。
  • 意大利：意大利統計局數據顯示，意大利9月對非歐盟國家出口額終值按年降7.1%至151.56億歐元，進口額終值按年升17.6%至150.65億歐元。
  • 日本：日本財務省公布，日本10月貿易環比意外重現逆差4,493億日圓，扭轉9月重現順差1,396億日圓，且逆差遠超市場預期的688億日圓。
  • 日本：日本經濟產業省公布，日本9月工業生產指數終值環比由升0.7%轉降0.4%，報102.9，為去年7月以來最低。
  • 新加坡：新加坡國際企業發展局公布，新加坡10月非石油出口連升第七個月，且按年續升8.3%，遠勝市場預期的僅升1%。
中國市場動態
經濟相關新聞

  • 美國財政部數據顯示，今年9月份，中國持有的美國國債連續第四個月下降，從前一個月的1.17萬億美元降至1.15萬億美元，創一年多新低。

  • 前中國財政部長樓繼偉表示，即使中美貿易戰的結果無法預測，中國經濟還會維持在6%左右的中高速發展。
 
 
 

文翠珊失寵 硬脫歐風險增
 

本週文翠珊成功穩住內閣，支持其與歐盟的脫歐協議。但是，多名內閣官員辭職，令文翠珊政治動能面臨壓力。我們認為，近期事件反映文翠珊支持度下降，將令脫歐投票帶來不確定的因素，甚至面臨多種南轅北轍的局面。

近期政治風險驟升
失去信任投票和首相請辭的可能性正在上升，引起保守黨內領導人的競爭。在目前情況下，如果歐盟不寬限最終期限，英國或者難以達成協議。因為當前談判協議必須在2019年1月21日最終期限前達成。在3月29日最終脫歐期限，英國和歐盟的關係將可能出現不同的結果。


近期而言，歐盟寬限簽訂日期對市場來講可能是最佳的結果。中期來講，第二次公投可能較重新大選更好，或者可以打破當前政治爭議。


硬脫歐和不脫歐都有可能
從結果來看，包括硬脫歐和不脫歐兩個選項對英國經濟和市場最好和最差的選項，出現的可能性都較達成當前談判協議的可能性大。


目前來講，文翠珊政府是由少數派政黨的聯合政府組成，有325名非保守黨議員和318名保守黨議員。10名北愛民主統一黨（DUP）將成為當前脫歐協議的關鍵。不過，目前他們不滿北愛爾蘭地區和英國本土可能存在貿易障礙的條款。


英鎊取決於脫歐走勢
如果文翠珊未能處理好DUP政黨的關係，英鎊兌美元則面臨巨大的貶值壓力。相反，一旦英國議會通過脫歐協議，英鎊兌美元或可升至1.35至1.40左右的水平。
英鎊兌美元

783_1c

資料來源：彭博

11月，英國央行暗示加息進程加快。對比歐洲央行，英國增長和通脹數據更佳，加息步伐更為靈活。不過，英國行長卡尼警告，如果英國無序脫歐，目前的加息進程可能會面臨終止。
從政治噪音到政治主導

 

2018年，金融市場開始被政治噪音所影響。展望2019年，政治事件可能變身主導地位，對脆弱的經濟和市場環境造成影響。

 
 
 
 
富達免費基金 只益美國公民
 

富達免費基金自8月面世至今，規模已分別有13.5億及3.9億美元，吸金能力頗高。富達是美國大型基金公司，管理基金規模高達2.61萬億美元，免費基金佔比微不足道，但先聲奪人，宣傳效果奇佳.....
 
 
自行揀選基金 入門有法
 

金融科技日益創新，現時中港台三地已有不少銷售基金的自助平台，讓客戶自行選購基金。除了基金選擇比銀行多外，某些更豁免首次認購費，令投資者可保留更多的本金作投資.....
 
 
 

 
 
截至2018/11/16
 
股市指數

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

美國道瓊斯工業
25,413.22
-2.22%
2.81%
美國標準普爾500
2,736.27
-1.61%
2.34%
美國納斯達克指數
7,247.87
-2.15%
4.99%
英國金融時報
7,013.88
-1.29%
-8.77%
德國DAX
11,341.00
-1.63%
-12.21%
法國CAC
5,025.20
-1.60%
-5.41%
日本日經平均225
21,680.34
-2.56%
-4.76%
澳洲ASX 200
5,730.55
-3.23%
-5.52%
南韓綜合
2,092.40
0.30%
-15.20%
香港恆生
26,183.53
2.27%
-12.49%
香港國企指數
10,583.77
1.46%
-9.61%
中國上證綜合
2,679.11
3.09%
-18.99%
中國深證綜合
1,410.18
6.17%
-25.75%
台灣加權
9,797.09
-0.33%
-7.95%
印度Sensex
35,457.16
0.85%
4.11%
俄羅斯RTS
1,134.93
1.21%
-1.69%
巴西Bovespa
88,515.27
3.36%
15.85%
以本地貨幣計算

定息產品表現/同業拆息

最新水平

一週變幅(bp)

2017年12月31日水平

美國－2年期
2.80%
-12
1.88%
美國－10年期
3.06%
-12
2.41%
德國－10年期
0.37%
-4
0.43%
日本－10年期
0.10%
-2
0.05%
Libor–隔夜
2.18%
0
1.43%
Libor–1個月
2.30%
-1
1.56%
Libor–3個月
2.64%
3
1.69%
Euribor–1個月
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3個月
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1個月
2.68%
1
4.94%
Shibor–3個月
3.02%
2
4.91%
Hibor–隔夜
0.44%
-7
1.34%
Hibor–1個月
1.04%
1
1.19%
Hibor–3個月
1.97%
-11
1.31%
注意: 1 bp = 0.01%

商品(現貨價)/貨幣

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

原油(紐約商品交易所)
56.46
-6.20%
-6.55%
黃金 ($/oz)
1221.5
0.96%
-6.26%
標普高盛商品指數
432.3761
-1.86%
-2.27%
RJ/CRB商品指數
193.5102
-0.57%
-1.75%
波羅的海乾散貨指數
1031
-10.11%
-24.52%
歐元兌美元
1.1329
-0.14%
-5.43%
英鎊兌美元
1.2815
-1.50%
-5.05%
澳元兌美元
0.7255
0.21%
-7.19%
美元兌日圓
113.26
-0.48%
0.65%
資料來源：彭博
 
 
 
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
美國
MBA 貸款申請指數 (11月)
21/11
Markit歐元區綜合採購經理人指數  (11月)
23/11
首次申請失業救濟金人數 (11月)
21/11
日本
貿易收支(調整後)  (10月)
19/11
 
彭博經濟預期 (11月)
21/11
全產業活動指數 (9月)
21/11
 
密西根大學1年通貨膨脹 (11月)
21/11
全國消費者物價指數  (10月)
22/11
 
Markit美國綜合採購經理人指數 (11月)
23/11
日本買進海外債券 (11月)
22/11
歐元區
歐洲央行經常帳(經季調) (9月)
19/11
日本買進海外股票 (11月)
22/11
OECD Economic Forecasts
21/11
日經日本製造業採購經理人指數 (11月)
23/11
  
消費者信心指數  (11月)
22/11
中國
Industrial Profits  (10月)
27/11
 
 
 
 
 
 
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注意：我們的文章以及專欄內容並不是投資建議，亦非認同有關的投資策略。基金價格可升亦可跌，過往業績並不代表將來表現。作投資決定前，請先咨詢閣下之專業投資顧問，並閱讀有關基金的說明書及年報。

風險披露聲明：投資者應留意，部分產品透過衍生工具例如期貨合約及期權行使槓桿效應，其投資風險高於其他投資。基金價格可升亦可跌，基金並不保證可達致其整體投資目標。
 
 
 
19 November 2018 Issue 783
Market Commentary
Trump claimed that he is optimistic on resolving the Sino-US trade dispute
The number of Treasury Bond that China is holding dropped for four consecutive month
Highlight of the Week
Risk increase as Brexit deal loses support
Financial Editorials
   
 
   
   
Market Performance at a Glance
   
Important Economic Releases This Week
   
 
 
 
Global Market Commentary

Equity

  • US: It is worries that the continuing increase in interest rates will drag down global economic growth. Also, the WTI oil price decreased significantly in recent days, making energy stocks performed worse than the market expectation. For the whole week, the Dow fell by 2.22% to 25,413.22 points. The S&P 500 index fell by 1.61% to 2,736.27. The Nasdaq fell by 2.15 percent to 7,247.87.
  • Europe: The prospect of Brexit is unclear, affecting the performance of large banks. Also, Nvidia, the US chip maker, is pessimistic towards the sales, dragging down European stock markets. Over the week, the UK's FTSE 100 index fell by 1.29 percent, the German DAX index fell by 1.63 percent, and the French CAC 40 index fell by 1.60 percent. The STOXX 600 index fell by 2.20% to 357.71 points.
  • Asia: The Asia-Pacific stock market performed bad since the drop in US stock market. During the period, the total export volume rose for the 20th month, but only continued to increase by 3.9% year-on-year, far below the market expectation of 6.3%. Over the week, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.56 percent to 21,680.34. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by 0.26% to 151.87 points.

 

Commodity

  • Oil: Due to the oversupply and demand reduction on crude oil , oil prices have fallen sharply. Over the week, New York oil futures fell by 6.20% to close at $56.46 a barrel.

Bonds

  • US: US Federal Reserve officials pointed out that the global economic growth is weak and it will slow down the growth in interest rate, making the debt price fall. For the whole week, the yield on the US 10-year government bond fell by 12 basis points to 3.059%.

  • Europe: Due to the resignation of the Brexit Minister, the government led by May, British Prime Minister, fell into a chaos on the issue of Brexit, dragging down the European bond market. For the whole week, the yield on German 10-year bonds fell by 4 basis points to 0.366%.

Currency

  • US dollar: Richard Clarida, the Fed Vice Chairman, said that interest rate is approaching a neutral level, suggesting that the Bureau will consider suspending the plan of raising interest rate in the next year, and his comments have caused the dollar to fall significantly. For the entire week, the Dollar Index fell by 0.454% to 96.465.
  • China: China's interest rate may continue to fall due to weak demand. In addition, the US continues to raise interest rates, which brings downward pressure on the yuan against the US dollar. For the whole week, the yuan fell by 0.062% against the US dollar at 6.925.

 

Economic-related News

  • U.S: Trump said that after receiving the list of China’s response to his request, he was optimistic about resolving the trade dispute between the two countries.
  • U.S: Clarida, Vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in order to maintain the balance of supply and demand in the economy, and it will also pay close attention to the slowdown in overseas economic growth.
  • U.S: According to the data from Fed, the US Manufacturing Output in October was the fifth consecutive month growth, which is the longest continuous growth since 2011, showing a good start for the fourth quarter.
  • U.S: The quarterly household debt and credit report of the Federal Reserve Bank showed that the overall household debt in the third quarter increased by $219 billion, or 1.6%, to a total of $13.5 trillion.
  • Euro-zone: Theresa May, British Prime Minister, said that the challenge to her leadership will distract the effort put on the Brexit negotiations. She claimed any new prime minister will face the same problem and urged the parliament to support its Brexit agreement.
  • Euro-zone: Draghi, the President of European Central Bank, expected that the Eurozone economy will continue to grow in the next few years, but it needs to pay close attention to the risks of protectionism.
  • Italy: Statistics from the Italian Statistical Office showed that the final value of Italian exports to non-EU countries fell by 7.1% year-on-year to 15.156 billion euros in September, while the final value of imports rose by 17.6% year-on-year to 15.065 billion euros.
  • Japan: Japan's Ministry of Finance announced that the trade deflict in October was 4,493 billion yen, reversing the September surplus of 139.6 billion yen, and the deficit was far exceeded the market expectations of 68.8 billion yen.
  • Japan: Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced that the final value of Japan’s industrial production index fell by 0.4% in September, which is the lowest since July last year.
  • Singapore: The Singapore International Enterprise Development Agency announced that Singapore’s non-oil exports rose for the seventh consecutive month in October, and rose 8.3% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations of only 1%.
China Market Commentary
Economic-related news
  • US Treasury data shows that the number of Treasury Bond that China is holding dropped for four consecutive month, from 1.17 trillion US dollars in the previous month to 1.15 trillion US dollars in September, which is a new low of more than a year.
  • Lou Jiwei, the Former Chinese Finance Minister, said that although the outcome of the Sino-US trade war is unpredictable,China's economic growth will still maintain at around 6%.
 
 
 

Risk increase as Brexit deal loses support
 

UK Prime Minister Theresa May achieved a victory, securing Cabinet support for her Brexit deal. Resignations of key ministers, have moved the political momentum sharply against the PM. We believe the event is liked with the lack of support for her Brexit deal, calling for reassessment of different outcomes and uncertainty and headline risk.


Near-Term political risks sharply rising
Chances for the PM resignation or losing a confidence vote are growing, giving a way for a Conservative Party Leadership contest. In this case, it is hard for UK continue on its path toward without requesting a break from EU. Because the current deal must be achieved before the “final date” January 21st. Before the March 29th EU withdrawal date, the range of possible outcomes can be shifted.


In the near-term, an extension from the EU will be the signal for market of the plausible outcomes. In the medium-term, second referendum can be an option to break the political impasse, which can be a better choice than general election.

Never Brexit or No Deal Both Likely
In terms of outcome, “Never Brexit” or “No Brexit Deal”, the two best and worst outcomes for the UK economy and market, is considerably more likely than a successful vote on the current deal.
There are 325 non-Conservatives members compared to 318 Conservatives members in current May’s minority government. The 10 DUP MPs will be key for May’s Brexit votes. However, they are deeply displeased with the deal as it relates to Northern Ireland.


GBP is subject to the process of Brexit
If May can not deal with DUP vote, GBP will face a big downward pressure against USD. However, once UK vote for a Brexit deal, GBP/USD can increase around 1.35 to 1.40 level.

GBP/USD

783_1e

Data Source: Bloomberg

In November, Bank of England hits at faster hikes. Compared to European Central Bank, BOE will be more flexible to hike rate based on the underlying growth and inflation data. However, Carney warned that all bets would be off if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.
From political noise to the dominance of politics
2018 has marked the beginning of the era of the dominance of politics in the financial markets. Politic represent a key market driver in a more fragile economic and market environment in 2019.
 
 
 
富達免費基金 只益美國公民
 

富達免費基金自8月面世至今，規模已分別有13.5億及3.9億美元，吸金能力頗高。富達是美國大型基金公司，管理基金規模高達2.61萬億美元，免費基金佔比微不足道，但先聲奪人，宣傳效果奇佳.....
 
 
自行揀選基金 入門有法
 

金融科技日益創新，現時中港台三地已有不少銷售基金的自助平台，讓客戶自行選購基金。除了基金選擇比銀行多外，某些更豁免首次認購費，令投資者可保留更多的本金作投資.....
 
 
 
As of 2018/11/16
 
Equity Indexes

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

USA DJIA
25,413.22
-2.22%
2.81%
USA S&P500
2,736.27
-1.61%
2.34%
USA NASDAQ
7,247.87
-2.15%
4.99%
UK FTSE 100
7,013.88
-1.29%
-8.77%
Germany DAX
11,341.00
-1.63%
-12.21%
France CAC
5,025.20
-1.60%
-5.41%
Japan Nikkei 225
21,680.34
-2.56%
-4.76%
Australia ASX 200
5,730.55
-3.23%
-5.52%
Korea KOSPI
2,092.40
0.30%
-15.20%
Hong Kong Hang Seng
26,183.53
2.27%
-12.49%
Hong Kong HSCEI
10,583.77
1.46%
-9.61%
China SHCOMP
2,679.11
3.09%
-18.99%
China SZCOMP
1,410.18
6.17%
-25.75%
Taiwan Taipei Weighted
9,797.09
-0.33%
-7.95%
India Sensex
35,457.16
0.85%
4.11%
Russia RTS
1,134.93
1.21%
-1.69%
Brazil Bovespa
88,515.27
3.36%
15.85%
In local currency terms

Fixed Income /Interbank Rate

Latest Level

Weekly Change (bp)

31 Dec 2017 Level

US–2 years
2.80%
-12
1.88%
US–10 years
3.06%
-12
2.41%
German–10 years
0.37%
-4
0.43%
Japan–10 years
0.10%
-2
0.05%
Libor–overnight
2.18%
0
1.43%
Libor–1 month
2.30%
-1
1.56%
Libor–3 months
2.64%
3
1.69%
Euribor–1 month
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3 months
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1 month
2.68%
1
4.94%
Shibor–3 month
3.02%
2
4.91%
Hibor–overnight
0.44%
-7
1.34%
Hibor–1 month
1.04%
1
1.19%
Hibor–3 months
1.97%
-11
1.31%
Note: 1 bp = 0.01 percentage point

Commodity (Spot) / Currency

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

Crude oil (NYMEX)
56.46
-6.20%
-6.55%
Gold ($/oz)
1221.5
0.96%
-6.26%
S&P GS Commodity Idx
432.3761
-1.86%
-2.27%
RJ/CRB Commodity Idx
193.5102
-0.57%
-1.75%
BDIY – Baltic Dry Index
1031
-10.11%
-24.52%
EUR – USD
1.1329
-0.14%
-5.43%
GBP – USD
1.2815
-1.50%
-5.05%
AUD – USD
0.7255
0.21%
-7.19%
USD – JPY
113.26
-0.48%
0.65%
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
 
 
 
 
Country/
Region
Economic Indicator
Date of Release

Country/Region
Economic Indicator
Date of Release
US
MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov)
21/11
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (Nov)
23/11
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov)
21/11
Japan
Trade Balance Adjusted (Oct)
19/11
Bloomberg Economic Expectations (Nov)
21/11
All Industry Activity Index (Sep)
21/11
U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation (Nov)
21/11
Natl CPI (Oct)
22/11
Markit US Composite PMI (Nov)
23/11
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Nov)
22/11
Eurozone
ECB Current Account SA (Sep)
19/11
Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Nov)
22/11
OECD Economic Forecasts
21/11
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (Nov)
23/11
Consumer Confidence (Nov)
22/11
China
Industrial Profits (Oct)
27/11
 
 
 
 
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Note: The contents of the Noble Apex eNewsletter do not constitute investment advice of any kind, neither do they indicate consent with the investment strategies of the products mentioned. Fund prices may rise as well as fall, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investors should consult professional investment advisers and read relevant prospectus and annual reports before making any investment decisions.

Risk Disclosure: Investors should be aware that some of the investment products exercise leverages through derivatives such as futures and options, so the risks involved in investing in such products may be higher than other investments. Fund prices may rise as well as fall. There is no guarantee that fund investments can achieve overall investment objectives.