2018年11月12日 第782期
市場動態
美國將對中國通用鋁合金板徵收96.3%至176.2%的反傾銷和反補貼稅
中央政治局委員楊潔篪與博爾頓會見時指中美經貿關係的本質應是互利共贏的
本周焦點
中港回購潮的啟示
財經文章
   
 
   
   
主要股市表現一覽
   
本周重要經濟數據
 
 
index_778a
環球市場動態

股市

  • 美國: 因中期選舉結果符合市場預期,刺激股市向上。全週計,道指升2.84%,報25,989.30點。標普500指數升2.13%,報點2,781.01。納指升0.68%,報7,406.90點。
  • 歐洲: 因美國中期選舉符合市場預期,政治不明朗大減,加上西班牙最高法院裁定,銀行毋須就批出的按揭貸款繳稅,利好銀行股。全週計,英國富時100指數升0.16%,德國DAX指數升0.09%,法國CAC40指數升0.09%。STOXX 600指數全週升0.46%,報365.74點。
  • 亞洲: 受累於科技股,亞洲股市普遍下跌。全週計,日經225指數升0.03%,報22,250.25點。MSCI 亞太區指數跌0.89%,報152.26點。

 

債券

  • 美國: 因受避險因素刺激,美國債市受捧,價格上升,令10年期國庫券孳息回落。全週計,美國10年期國債孳息率跌3個基點,報3.182%。
  • 歐元區因通脹下滑及歐洲央行決定將加息計劃推遲到明年下半年。全週計,德國10年期國債孳息率跌2個基點,報0.406%。

商品

  • 油價:因供應過剩給OPEC帶來壓力,紐約原油期貨下跌。全週計,紐約期油跌4.67%,收報每桶60.19美元。

 

貨幣

  • 美元:聯儲局議息聲明暗示聯儲局將如期下月加息,利好美元匯價。全週計,美匯指數升0.376%,報 96.905。
  • 中國:因中美貿易緊張,加上聯儲局仍將加息,加大人民幣貶值壓力。全週計,人民幣兌1美元跌1.067%,報6.948。

 

與經濟相關新聞

  • 美國:美國密歇根大學公布,11月消費者信心指數初值98.3,高於市場預期之98,惟仍低於上月之98.6。
  • 美國:美國商務部表示,最終裁定將對中國通用鋁合金板徵收介乎96.3%至176.2%的反傾銷和反補貼稅,這是自1985年以來美國政府主動開啟的雙反調查中首次最終裁決徵收關稅。
  • 美國:美國勞工部公布,10月份最終需求生產物價指數(PPI)按月上升0.6%,為2012年9月以來最大升幅。
  • 美國:美國勞工部公布,經季節調整後,美國截至11月3日止當周首次申領失業金救濟人數連跌兩周,按周續降1千人,至總數21.4萬人,仍高於市場預期總數21.3萬人。
  • 歐元區:英國國家統計局公布,英國第三季國內生產總值(GDP)初值按年升幅加快至1.5%,高於前值的1.2%,符合市場預期。
  • 歐元區:英國國家統計局公布,英國第三季私人家庭消費支出按季升幅加快至0.5%,符市場預期,前值升幅由0.3%上修至0.4%。
  • 意大利:意大利統計局公布,經季節調整後,意大利9月零售銷售額按月降0.8%,遠遜市場預期轉降0.2%。
  • 日本:日本財務省數據顯示,截至今年10月底止,日本外匯儲備總額終止連升兩個月,回落至1.252873萬億美元,按月轉降68億美元。
  • 日本:日本內閣府調查顯示,日本10月服務業現況指數再度回升至49.5,顯高於市場預期由9月48.6,回升至48.7。期內,服務業景氣指數卻連降兩個月,由9月51.3,續降至50.6,但仍高於市場預期50.3。
  • 澳洲:澳洲統計局公布,澳洲9月自住房屋貸款許可宗數連跌兩個月,但按月跌幅放緩至1%,至50,673宗,符合市場預期。
中國市場動態
經濟相關新聞
  • 中央政治局委員、中央外事工作委員會辦公室主任楊潔篪周三(7日)在白宮會見美國總統國家安全事務助理博爾頓時表示,中美經貿關係的本質是互利共贏的,雙方要通過平等互利的談判共同尋找妥善解決辦法。

  • 中國電商巨擘阿里巴巴旗下天貓「雙十一」24小時購物節結束,全日成交額(GMV)達2,135億元人民幣(308億美元)紀錄,較去年的1,682億元人民幣(253億美元)按年升26.9%。
 
 
 

中港回購潮的啟示

 

全球股市企業回購從未如今年般熱烈。根據高盛的數據,2018年美國標準普爾500指數公司的股票回購將超過8000億美元(同比增長40%),而這歷史新高將會再被打破,高盛預期2019將再增加20%至近1萬億美元。在香港,今年10月份亦有超過84家上市公司在回購他們的股票,這是自2011年9月以來單月份的最高數字,使回購總額在2018年1-10月達到269億港元。同樣,中國股市在2018年至今有609家A股公司作出回購,回購金額達336億人民幣,超過了前三年的總和。然而,投資者必須仔細研究不同市場的回購可能是由不同的因素或背景所駒動,從而可能給出一個是市場見底或見頂的不同信號,並導致完全不同的投資結果。

 

圖一. 中國A股上市公司回購金額與筆數

index 782 1c

來源: Wind, 華創証劵

對於港股而言,回購活動與美國相比並不十分活躍。回購通常僅在股市低迷期間增加(例如,2008年10月金融危機期間;、2011年9月當恆生指數在5個月內下跌35%、2015年8月恆指在3個月內下跌12%)。同樣的情況亦在今年重演,今年港股從峰值水平下跌超過24%,而企業回購在18年下半年明顯逐步增加。普遍上市公司管理層相信在股市大跌時作出回購有助於表明公司對未來充滿信心,並顯示公司股價在跌勢後被嚴重低估。特別是,如果公司持有人,主要股東或高級管理層亦同期大幅增持公司股票,那麼所帶出的信號便更加正面,因為增持資金都是出自他們自己的口袋而不是公司的錢,而這些人比誰都更了解他們的業務前景。

同樣,企業回購在A股市場亦不算熱烈,因為中國股票市場對回購的要求比美股及港股更加嚴格和有限制,而過去審批時間亦較長。此外,由於許多中國公司仍處於快速成長階段,各種投資選擇充斥市場,管理層傾向於保留資金為未來研發和擴充作準備,以便為日後投資者帶來更可觀的長遠回報。因此,只有當股票市場陷入困境時,回購活動才通常會增加。而今年A股市場至今大幅下挫,中國政府大力鼓勵A股上市公司進行企業回購,並修訂公司法放寬回購要求。中國證監會(CSRC)亦於今年9月提出更簡化的審批程序,並鼓勵更多上市公司實施股權激勵和員工持股計劃,這亦有助推動今年A股的回購潮。這些行動實際上亦是針對中國今年出現的新一輪SPL的風險,企業回購有助穩定市場情緒並支持股價。從歷史經驗上看,當企業回購金額及參予企業飆升至歷史高位時,港股和A股市場通常已離底不遠,並可能出現拐點。但投資者須緊記股票/股市長期內在價值仍以基本面主導,企業回購的作用可能只是短暫。

 

 

 
 
 
指數投資 寄生效率市場
 

上次文章(10月16日見報)談的公地悲劇(Tragedy of the Commons),不是指數投資唯一問題。在市場指數更換成分股前一天臨收市前,被剔除的成分股股價會下跌.....

 
 
淺釋金融騙子之老手法
 

早前有政黨帶同苦主舉行記者會,指受人誤導而購買虛擬貨幣礦機,結果損失慘重。當天打動人心的「一步登天,三代無憂」口號付諸東流,有些苦主甚至以借貸買入礦機,現時只好一身兼三職還款.....

 
 
 

 
 
截至2018/11/09
 
股市指數

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

美國道瓊斯工業
25,989.30
2.84%
5.14%
美國標準普爾500
2,781.01
2.13%
4.02%
美國納斯達克指數
7,406.90
0.68%
7.29%
英國金融時報
7,105.34
0.16%
-7.58%
德國DAX
11,529.16
0.09%
-10.75%
法國CAC
5,106.75
0.09%
-3.87%
日本日經平均225
22,250.25
0.03%
-2.26%
澳洲ASX 200
5,921.85
1.24%
-2.36%
南韓綜合
2,086.09
-0.47%
-15.46%
香港恆生
25,601.92
-3.34%
-14.43%
香港國企指數
10,431.46
-2.40%
-10.91%
中國上證綜合
2,598.87
-2.90%
-21.42%
中國深證綜合
1,328.19
-1.70%
-30.07%
台灣加權
9,830.01
-0.77%
-7.64%
印度Sensex
35,158.55
0.42%
3.23%
俄羅斯RTS
1,121.38
-1.18%
-2.86%
巴西Bovespa
85,641.21
-3.14%
12.09%
以本地貨幣計算

定息產品表現/同業拆息

最新水平

一週變幅(bp)

2017年12月31日水平

美國-2年期
2.92%
2
1.88%
美國-10年期
3.18%
-3
2.41%
德國-10年期
0.41%
-2
0.43%
日本-10年期
0.12%
-1
0.05%
Libor–隔夜
2.18%
0
1.43%
Libor–1個月
2.31%
0
1.56%
Libor–3個月
2.62%
3
1.69%
Euribor–1個月
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3個月
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1個月
2.67%
-2
4.94%
Shibor–3個月
3.00%
2
4.91%
Hibor–隔夜
0.52%
6
1.34%
Hibor–1個月
1.03%
-7
1.19%
Hibor–3個月
2.08%
-2
1.31%
注意: 1 bp = 0.01%

商品(現貨價)/貨幣

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

原油(紐約商品交易所)
60.19
-4.67%
-0.38%
黃金 ($/oz)
1209.85
-1.87%
-7.15%
標普高盛商品指數
440.5506
-2.22%
-0.43%
RJ/CRB商品指數
194.6138
-1.96%
-1.19%
波羅的海乾散貨指數
1147
-21.28%
-16.03%
歐元兌美元
1.1345
-0.91%
-5.30%
英鎊兌美元
1.301
-0.15%
-3.61%
澳元兌美元
0.724
-0.19%
-7.38%
美元兌日圓
113.81
0.85%
1.14%
資料來源:彭博
 
 
 
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
美國
CPI (10月)
14/11
貿易收支 (9月)
15/11
進口物價指數 (10月)
15/11
CPI (10月)
16/11
 
出口價格指數 (10月)
15/11
日本
PPI (10月)
12/11
 
首次申請失業救濟金人數 (11月)
15/11
GDP經季調 (第三季)
14/11
 
工業生產 (10月)
16/11
第三產業指數 (9月)
14/11
歐元區
工業生產經季調 (9月)
14/11
工業生產 (9月)
14/11
GDP經季調 (第三季)
14/11
中國
社會融資(人民幣) (10月)
12/11
  
就業 (第三季)
14/11
工業生產 (10月)
14/11
 
 
 
 
 
 
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注意:我們的文章以及專欄內容並不是投資建議,亦非認同有關的投資策略。基金價格可升亦可跌,過往業績並不代表將來表現。作投資決定前,請先咨詢閣下之專業投資顧問,並閱讀有關基金的說明書及年報。

風險披露聲明:投資者應留意,部分產品透過衍生工具例如期貨合約及期權行使槓桿效應,其投資風險高於其他投資。基金價格可升亦可跌,基金並不保證可達致其整體投資目標。
 
 
 
12 November 2018 Issue 782
Market Commentary
US will impose 96.3% to 176.2% anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Chinese common alloy aluminum sheets
Yang Jiechi claimed that the nature of Sino-U.S. trade relations is mutually beneficial during the meeting with John Bolton
Highlight of the Week
Buybacks come back in Hong Kong and A-share
Financial Editorials
   
 
   
   
Market Performance at a Glance
   
Important Economic Releases This Week
   
 
 
 
Global Market Commentary

Equity

  • US: The result of US mid-term elections is same as the market expectations, the US stock market is stimulated. Over the week, the Dow rose by 2.84% to 25,989.30. The S&P 500 index rose by 2.13% to 2,781.01. The Nasdaq rose by 0.68% to 7,406.90.
  • Europe: The result of US mid-term elections is same as the market expectations, political uncertainty was greatly reduced, and the Spanish Supreme Court ruled that banks were not required to pay taxes on mortgage loans, which benefit the financial sector stocks and the European stock market. Over the week, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose by 0.16%, the German DAX index rose by 0.09%, and the French CAC40 index rose by 0.09%. The STOXX 600 index rose by 0.46% for the week, to 365.74 points.
  • Asia: Affected by technology sector's stocks, the Asian stock market decline. The Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.03 percent to 22,250.25 points. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by 0.89 percent to 152.26.

 

Commodity

  • Oil: New York crude oil futures fell as a result of oversupply putting pressure on OPEC. Over the week, New York oil futures fell by 4.67 percent to close at $60.19 a barrel.

Bonds

  • US: Stimulated by the risk-averse factors, the US bond market was favored and prices rose, causing the yield of 10-year Treasury bill fall. For the whole week, the US 10-year bond yield fell by 3 basis points to 3.182%.

  • Europe: Due to the decline in inflation rate and the European Central Bank decided to postpone the rate hike until the second half of next year, the 10-year government bond fell. For the whole week, the yield on German 10-year bonds fell by 2 basis points to 0.406%.

Currency

  • US dollar: The Fed’s interest rate statement implies that the Fed will raise the interest rates on next month, which benefits the US dollar exchange rate. For the entire week, the Dollar Index rose by 0.376% to 96.905.
  • China: Due to trade tensions between China and the United States, and the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, the pressure on the depreciation of the renminbi increased. For the whole week, the yuan fell by 1.067% against the US dollar at 6.948.

 

Economic-related News

  • U.S: The U.S. initial Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 98.3 in November, ahead of 98 in consensus, yet below October's 98.6, according to the University of Michigan.
  • U.S: China's President Xi Jinping had a proactive dialogue with U.S. President Donald Trump during their phone call and both sides believed the two countries should improve trade relations and negotiate based on mutual respect, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed.
  • U.S: US Department of Labor announced that after seasonal adjustment, for the week ended 3 November, the initial jobless claims declined monthly by 1,000 to a total of 214,000, lower than market projection of 213,000.
  • U.S: The US Department of Commerce announced its final decision to impose 96.3% to 176.2% anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Chinese common alloy aluminum sheets. This is the first time since 1985 for the US government to make such decision in her double counter investigations against China.
  • Euro-zone: The Office for National Statistics announced that the growth rate of the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) in UK accelerated to 1.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 1.2%, same as the expectations.
  • Euro-zone: The Office for National Statistics announced that the growth rate of the third quarter private household consumption expenditure in UK accelerated to 0.5% from 0.4% quarter-on-quarter , same as the market expectation.
  • Italy: Italy's seasonally adjusted retail sales declined by 0.8% month-on-month in September, dipping far more than market estimate of 0.2%, Istat data showed.
  • Japan: As of the end of October 2018, Japan's foreign exchange reserves ended its two-month rise and descended to US$1.252873 trillion, down US$6.8 billion monthly, data of Japan's Ministry of Finance showed.
  • Japan: According to a survey conducted by the Cabinet Office of Japan, Japan’s service industry index rebounded to 49.5 in October, which was significantly higher than market expectations of 48.7. During the period, the service industry sentiment index fell for two consecutive months, from 51.3 in September to 50.6, but still higher than market expectations of 50.3.
  • Australia: The Australian Bureau of Statistics announced that the number of self-occupied home loan permits in Australia fell for two consecutive months, but the monthly decline rate slowed down to 1% to 50,673 , same as the market expectations.
China Market Commentary
Economic-related news
  • Yang Jiechi, member of Politburo of the Communist Party, said during a meeting with John Bolton, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, at the White House that the nature of Sino-U.S. trade relations is mutually beneficial and the two sides need to seek a solution via constructive talks based on fair principles.

  • The 24-hour '11.11' shopping day held by Alibaba's Tmall has come to an end. The gross merchandise value (GMV) during the festival hit RMB213.5 billion (US$30.8 billion), representing a 26.9% increment from RMB168.2 billion (US$25.3 billion) a year ago.
 
 
 

Buybacks come back in Hong Kong and A-share

 

Buyback activities have never been as hot as today. Share buybacks for US equity market will exceed US$800bn for 2018 (+40% YoY), while this record high level should increase by 20%-plus to a new all-time high of almost US$1 trillion for 2019, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. In Hong Kong, at least 84 listed companies bought back their shares in October this year - the highest number for a single month since September 2011, adding the total buyback amount YTD to HK$26.9bn. Likewise, 609 A-share companies in China have repurchased a total amount of RMB33.6bn YTD in 2018, exceeding the sum of the previous three years. However, investors have to look into details that buybacks could be led by different reasons or drivers, which may give you a different sign about the market and leading to a total different investment outcome.

Figure 1. China A shares buyback activities increased rapidly in recent months
index 782 1e
Source: Wind, Hua Chuang Securities


For Hong Kong stock market, buyback activity has not been very active compared to US as it usually increases only during stock market downturn (e.g, in October 2008 during the financial crisis; in September 2011 as HSI fell 35% in 5 months, and in Aug 2015 when HSI down 12% in 3 months). The same case repeats in this year as the stock market crashed by over 24% from the peak level and we saw buyback has picked-up in 2H18 gradually. This is because buyback during downturn helps to signal confidence in the company’s future as shares are undervalued after the fall. In particular, if the buyback comes together with stakes raising by company owner, major shareholder or senior management, the signal is even more positive since the money come from their own pockets rather than company’s money and these people know their business more than anyone else.

Similarly, buyback has not been very popular in A-share market as regulations for buyback in China stock market is tighter and more restrictive and it requires a lengthier approval process in the past. Besides, as many of the Chinese companies are still in the growth stage, management prefers to reserve more capital for R&D and expansion purpose in order to generate a higher return for investors over the long-term. Therefore, buyback activities generally increase when stock market is in trouble only. The rise of buyback in China A-share this year has been supported by the government thanks to the amendment of company law and a more simplified approval process as initiated by China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in September this year. At the same time, the CSRC has encouraged more listed companies for the implementation of equity incentives and employee stock ownership plans, which also drove the buyback of A-share this year. All these actions are actually in response to the SPL issues in China as buyback should help to stabilize the market sentiment and as a support to the falling share price. Historically, Hong Kong and A-share stock markets have appeared near the bottom and are close to the inflection point when share repurchase surge to the record high level.

 
 
 
指數投資 寄生效率市場
 

上次文章(10月16日見報)談的公地悲劇(Tragedy of the Commons),不是指數投資唯一問題。在市場指數更換成分股前一天臨收市前,被剔除的成分股股價會下跌.....

 
 
淺釋金融騙子之老手法
 

早前有政黨帶同苦主舉行記者會,指受人誤導而購買虛擬貨幣礦機,結果損失慘重。當天打動人心的「一步登天,三代無憂」口號付諸東流,有些苦主甚至以借貸買入礦機,現時只好一身兼三職還款.....

 
 
 
As of 2018/11/09
 
Equity Indexes

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

USA DJIA
25,989.30
2.84%
5.14%
USA S&P500
2,781.01
2.13%
4.02%
USA NASDAQ
7,406.90
0.68%
7.29%
UK FTSE 100
7,105.34
0.16%
-7.58%
Germany DAX
11,529.16
0.09%
-10.75%
France CAC
5,106.75
0.09%
-3.87%
Japan Nikkei 225
22,250.25
0.03%
-2.26%
Australia ASX 200
5,921.85
1.24%
-2.36%
Korea KOSPI
2,086.09
-0.47%
-15.46%
Hong Kong Hang Seng
25,601.92
-3.34%
-14.43%
Hong Kong HSCEI
10,431.46
-2.40%
-10.91%
China SHCOMP
2,598.87
-2.90%
-21.42%
China SZCOMP
1,328.19
-1.70%
-30.07%
Taiwan Taipei Weighted
9,830.01
-0.77%
-7.64%
India Sensex
35,158.55
0.42%
3.23%
Russia RTS
1,121.38
-1.18%
-2.86%
Brazil Bovespa
85,641.21
-3.14%
12.09%
In local currency terms

Fixed Income /Interbank Rate

Latest Level

Weekly Change (bp)

31 Dec 2017 Level

US–2 years
2.92%
2
1.88%
US–10 years
3.18%
-3
2.41%
German–10 years
0.41%
-2
0.43%
Japan–10 years
0.12%
-1
0.05%
Libor–overnight
2.18%
0
1.43%
Libor–1 month
2.31%
0
1.56%
Libor–3 months
2.62%
3
1.69%
Euribor–1 month
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3 months
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1 month
2.67%
-2
4.94%
Shibor–3 month
3.00%
2
4.91%
Hibor–overnight
0.52%
6
1.34%
Hibor–1 month
1.03%
-7
1.19%
Hibor–3 months
2.08%
-2
1.31%
Note: 1 bp = 0.01 percentage point

Commodity (Spot) / Currency

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

Crude oil (NYMEX)
60.19
-4.67%
-0.38%
Gold ($/oz)
1209.85
-1.87%
-7.15%
S&P GS Commodity Idx
440.5506
-2.22%
-0.43%
RJ/CRB Commodity Idx
194.6138
-1.96%
-1.19%
BDIY – Baltic Dry Index
1147
-21.28%
-16.03%
EUR – USD
1.1345
-0.91%
-5.30%
GBP – USD
1.301
-0.15%
-3.61%
AUD – USD
0.724
-0.19%
-7.38%
USD – JPY
113.81
0.85%
1.14%
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
 
 
 
 
Country/
Region
Economic Indicator
Date of Release

Country/Region

Economic Indicator
Date of Release
US
CPI (Oct)
14/11
Trade Balance (Sep)
15/11
Import Price Index (Oct)
15/11
CPI (Oct)
16/11
Export Price Index (Oct)
15/11
Japan
PPI (Oct)
12/11
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov)
15/11
GDP SA (3Q)
14/11
Industrial Production (Oct)
16/11
Tertiary Industry Index (Sep)
14/11
Eurozone
Industrial Production SA (Sep)
14/11
China
Industrial Production (Sep)
14/11
GDP SA (3Q)
14/11
Aggregate Financing CNY (Oct)
12/11
Employment (3Q)
14/11
Industrial Production (Oct)
14/11
 
 
 
 
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