2018年11月05日 第781期
市場動態
美國9月貿易逆差增至540億美元，按月升1.3%
習近平指出，中國將支持自由貿易試驗區深化改革創新
本周焦點
中美元首通話 11月行情存反彈
財經文章
   
 
   
   
主要股市表現一覽
   
本周重要經濟數據
 
 
index_778a
環球市場動態

股市

  • 美國：美國總統特朗普和中國國家主席習近平於11月1日通電，特朗普在社交平台表示，兩人就貿易和北韓問題進行對話，氣氛良好，中美貿易緊張局勢有望緩解。全週計，道指升2.36 %，報25,270.83點。標普500指數升2.42 %，報點2,723.06。納指升2.65 %，報7,356.99點。
  • 歐洲: 中美貿易緊張望緩和，加冮歐洲所有銀行都通過歐盟今年壓力測試，歐洲股市普遍造好。全週計，英國富時100指數升2.23 %，德國DAX指數升2.84 %，法國CAC40指數升2.71 %。STOXX 600指數全週升3.33%，報364.08點。
  • 亞洲: 因中美貿易緊張局勢有望緩解，美股上升，亞太區股市跟隨美股上升。全週計，日經225指數升5.00 %，報22,243.66點。MSCI 亞太區指數升4.80 %，報153.63點。

 

債券

  • 美國： 因美國10月份就業數據遠勝預期，令市場對聯儲局12月加息的預期升溫。全週計，美國10年期國債孳息率升14個基點，報3.205 %。
  • 歐元區：德國總理默克爾宣佈不會尋求連任黨主席後，德國10年期國債孳息率隨即上升。全週計，德國10年期國債孳息率升8個基點，報0.426%。

商品

  • 油價：美國國務卿蓬佩奧稱，預計將對8個國家發布伊朗石油進口禁令的豁免，但豁免僅屬暫時性，目的是維持原油價格穩定。全週計，紐約期油跌6.58 %，收報每桶63.14美元。

 

貨幣

  • 美元：美國9月諮商會消費者信心指數遠勝預期，從前值135.3升至137.9，令加息預期升溫而推高美匯指數。全週計，美匯指數升0.190%，報 96.542。
  • 中國：因中美貿易緊張望緩和及疑似監管干預。全週計，人民幣兌1美元升1.046%，報6.873。

 

與經濟相關新聞

  • 美國：美國商務部公布，9月貿易逆差增至540億美元，按月升1.3%，較市場預期約536億美元為高，累計今年至今已升10.1%。
  • 美國：中國外交部表示，國家主席習近平和美國總統特朗普的電話會談非常積極，雙方認為應該加強兩國貿易往來，應在相互尊重的基礎上展開中美磋商。
  • 美國：美國勞工部公布，美國截至10月27日止當周首次申領失業金救濟人數轉降2千人，至總數21.4萬人，市場原先預期回落至總數21.2萬人。
  • 美國：美國商務部公布，9月份耐用品訂單終值下修至增長0.7%(初值為0.8%)，至於8月份數值則上修至4.7%增長。
  • 歐元區：據IHS MARKIT公布，英國10月建築業PMI由上月52.1升至53.2，超出市場預期的52，並創十六個月以來次高。
  • 歐元區：德國聯邦統計局公布，德國9月進口價格指數按年升幅由前值的4.8%放緩至4.4%，略低於市場預期的升4.5%；按月回升0.4%，符合市場預期。
  • 歐元區：歐盟統計局公布，歐元區今年第三季國內生產總值(GDP)初值按季增長放緩至0.2%，為2014年以來最慢增速，市場原先預期連續第三季維持增長0.4%
  • 日本：日本央行數據顯示，日本10月基礎貨幣同比維持升5.9%，報501.6198萬億日圓；但經季調後基礎貨幣同比急升9.6%，報501.0162萬億日圓。
  • 日本：Nikkei/Markit數據顯示，日本10月製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)由9月的52.5回升至52.9，已連續26個月處於擴張水平，為全球金融危機以來最長擴張期。
  • 澳洲：道明證券與墨爾本研究院數據顯示，澳洲10月TD-MI通脹指數按年升幅放緩至1.9%(前值維持升2.1%)；按月升幅由前值升0.3%放緩至0.1%。
中國市場動態
經濟相關新聞

  • 國家主席習近平今日(5日)出席首屆中國國際進口博覽會開幕式並發表主旨演講指，中國將支持自由貿易試驗區深化改革創新，持續深化差別化探索，加大壓力測試，發揮自由貿易試驗區改革開放試驗田作用。

  • 財新智庫莫尼塔宏觀研究主管鍾正生評論中國通用服務業PMI數據時表示，10月財新服務業PMI錄得50.8，按月大幅下滑，創去年10月以來新低。
 
 
 

中美元首通話 11月行情存反彈
 

2018年，中美貿易衝突主導市場情緒。自3月份起，中美貿易爭議不斷升級，令香港恒生指數連續6個月下跌，破1982年以來的記錄，連金融海嘯和亞洲金融風暴亦未曾出現這一情況。上週四，美國特朗普和中國主席習近平通了電話，就貿易等中美關係議題進行交流。中美關係出現轉機改善市場情緒，恒生指數有望結束6連陰局面。

美方釋出善意
從雙方聲明來看，本輪通話有重啟中美關係談判的可能。首先，特朗普主動釋放出示好的態度，主動支援美國企業積極參加中國舉辦的首屆中國國際進口博覽會。這意味美國希望繼續擴大對中國出口。

另外，特朗普亦期待和中國月底在阿根廷G20峰會進行會晤，深入探討貿易問題。當前離月底仍有接近一個月，有充足時間構思貿易協定的細節。更重要的是，美國並未提及磋商的前提條件，為達成協議帶來談判空間。

中方積極回應
中國方面亦積極回應美方請求。其中，中國提及即將舉辦首屆國際進口博覽會，目的是釋放中國增加進口、擴大市場開發力度的里程碑事件。其次，中國海關10月份發佈通知，降低部分進口關稅稅率，履行開放市場的承諾。

港股存反彈條件
長時間下跌並非港股常態，港股被市場超賣，存在反彈的條件。首先，公司回購增加是反彈前的先兆。10月份香港市場錄得25.9億元回購，回購企業數量創2011年9月以來最高水準。從歷史上看，公司回購激烈上升時，香港股市有望出現反彈。

其次，從技術指標來看，恒生指數RSI的波動區間為30至75之間。當該指標跌至30，港股大概率出現反彈。10月底，該指標曾一度觸及30。

最後，動態估值來看，恒生指數動態市盈率已經回落至歷史平均值1個標準差以下的水準。港股當前估值十分吸引。

總括來講，中國“政策底”已經出現，為港股反彈創造有利條件。只要美國資金面不要出現劇烈波動，港股11月反彈可期。

 
 
 
指數投資 寄生效率市場
 

上次文章（10月16日見報）談的公地悲劇（Tragedy of the Commons），不是指數投資唯一問題。在市場指數更換成分股前一天臨收市前，被剔除的成分股股價會下跌.....
 
 
新興市場展現投資價值
 

去年年總回報近38%的MSCI新興市場指數，由年初至十月底已下跌超過15%。至於全年跌幅會否超過2015年(17%)或2011年(20%)，仍是未知之數.....
 
 
 

 
 
截至2018/11/02
 
股市指數

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

美國道瓊斯工業
25,270.83
2.36%
2.23%
美國標準普爾500
2,723.06
2.42%
1.85%
美國納斯達克指數
7,356.99
2.65%
6.57%
英國金融時報
7,094.12
2.23%
-7.72%
德國DAX
11,518.99
2.84%
-10.83%
法國CAC
5,102.13
2.71%
-3.96%
日本日經平均225
22,243.66
5.00%
-2.29%
澳洲ASX 200
5,849.21
3.25%
-3.56%
南韓綜合
2,096.00
3.40%
-15.06%
香港恆生
26,486.35
7.16%
-11.47%
香港國企指數
10,687.77
6.25%
-8.72%
中國上證綜合
2,676.48
2.99%
-19.07%
中國深證綜合
1,351.09
4.69%
-28.87%
台灣加權
9,906.59
4.40%
-6.92%
印度Sensex
35,011.65
4.98%
2.80%
俄羅斯RTS
1,134.80
3.32%
-1.70%
巴西Bovespa
88,419.05
3.15%
15.73%
以本地貨幣計算

定息產品表現/同業拆息

最新水平

一週變幅(bp)

2017年12月31日水平

美國－2年期
2.90%
10
1.88%
美國－10年期
3.21%
14
2.41%
德國－10年期
0.43%
8
0.43%
日本－10年期
0.13%
2
0.05%
Libor–隔夜
2.17%
0
1.43%
Libor–1個月
2.32%
2
1.56%
Libor–3個月
2.59%
7
1.69%
Euribor–1個月
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3個月
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1個月
2.69%
2
4.94%
Shibor–3個月
2.98%
3
4.91%
Hibor–隔夜
0.46%
-4
1.34%
Hibor–1個月
1.11%
-37
1.19%
Hibor–3個月
2.10%
-4
1.31%
注意: 1 bp = 0.01%

商品(現貨價)/貨幣

最新水平

一週變幅

年初至今

原油(紐約商品交易所)
63.14
-6.58%
4.50%
黃金 ($/oz)
1232.95
-0.01%
-5.38%
標普高盛商品指數
450.5379
-3.75%
1.83%
RJ/CRB商品指數
198.5007
-1.59%
0.79%
波羅的海乾散貨指數
1470
-3.23%
7.61%
歐元兌美元
1.1449
0.87%
-4.43%
英鎊兌美元
1.3029
1.84%
-3.47%
澳元兌美元
0.7254
3.10%
-7.20%
美元兌日圓
112.85
0.81%
0.28%
資料來源：彭博
 
 
 
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
國家/地區
經濟數據
公佈日期
美國
Markit美國綜合採購經理人指數 (10月)
05/11
PPI (9月)
06/11
MBA 貸款申請指數 (11月)
07/11
零售銷售 (9月)
07/11
 
消費信貸  (9月)
08/11
日本
日經日本綜合採購經理人指數 (10月)
05/11
 
PPI最終需求 (10月)
09/11
國際收支經常帳餘額 (9月)
08/11
 
密西根大學市場氣氛 (11月)
09/11
日本買進海外債券 (11月)
08/11
密西根大學1年通貨膨脹 (11月)
09/11
日本買進海外股票 (11月)
08/11
歐元區
Sentix投資者信心 (11月)
05/11
中國
貿易收支 (10月)
08/11
  
Markit歐元區綜合採購經理人指數  (10月)
06/11
CPI (10月)
09/11
 
 
 
 
 
 
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注意：我們的文章以及專欄內容並不是投資建議，亦非認同有關的投資策略。基金價格可升亦可跌，過往業績並不代表將來表現。作投資決定前，請先咨詢閣下之專業投資顧問，並閱讀有關基金的說明書及年報。

風險披露聲明：投資者應留意，部分產品透過衍生工具例如期貨合約及期權行使槓桿效應，其投資風險高於其他投資。基金價格可升亦可跌，基金並不保證可達致其整體投資目標。
 
 
 
05 November 2018 Issue 781
Market Commentary
The US's trade deficit in September increased by 1.3%
President Xi Jinping claimed that china will support the China Pilot Free Trade Zone to have an innovation reform
Highlight of the Week
Market Expected to Rebound Under Sino-U.S. Leader’s Call
Financial Editorials
   
 
   
   
Market Performance at a Glance
   
Important Economic Releases This Week
   
 
 
 
Global Market Commentary

Equity

  • US:US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were electrified on November 1. Trump said that they had a dialogue on trade and North Korea issues, and the atmosphere was good on the social platform . Sino-US trade tensions are expected to ease. Over the week, the Dow rose 2.36 percent to 25,270.83. The S&P 500 index rose 2.42% to 2,723.06. The Nasdaq rose 2.65 percent to 7,356.99.
  • Europe: Sino-US trade tensions are easing, all the European banks have passed the EU's stress test this year, and European stock markets generally performed well. Over the week, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 2.23%, the German DAX index rose 2.84%, and the French CAC40 index rose 2.71%. The STOXX 600 index rose 3.33% to 364.08 points.
  • Asia: As Sino-US trade tensions are expected to ease, US stocks are rising, and Asia-Pacific stock markets follow US stocks. Over the week, the Nikkei 225 index rose 5.00% to 22,243.66 points. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4.80% to 153.63 points

 

Commodity

  • Oil: US Secretary of State Pompeo said that it is expected that eight countries will be exempted from the Iranian oil import ban, but it is only temporary, with the aim of maintaining stable crude oil prices. Over the week, New York oil futures fell 6.58% to close at $63.14 a barrel.

Bonds

  • US: As the US employment data in October was far exceed the expectations, the market is expected to raise interest rates for the Fed's interest rate hike in December. Over the week, the yield on the US 10-year government bond rose by 14 basis points to 3.205%.

  • Europe: After the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel announced that he would not seek to re-elect the party chairman, the German 10-year bond yield would rise.Over the week, the German 10-year bond yield rose by 8 basis points to 0.426%.

Currency

  • US dollar: The US Consumer Confidence Index of the September Conference Board was far better than expected, rising from the previous value of 135.3 to 137.9, which caused the interest rate hike to heat up and push up the Dollar Index. Over the week, the Dollar Index rose 0.190% to 96.542.
  • China: Due to Sino-US trade tensions and suspected regulatory interventions. Over the week, the yuan rose 1.046% against the US dollar at 6.673.

 

Economic-related News

  • U.S:The US Department of Commerce announced that the trade deficit in September increased by 1.3% monthly to US$54.0 billion, higher than US$53.6 billion in consensus.
  • U.S:China's President Xi Jinping had a proactive dialogue with U.S. President Donald Trump during their phone call and both sides believed the two countries should improve trade relations and negotiate based on mutual respect, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed.
  • U.S:The US Department of Labor announced that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 2,000 to a total of 214,000. The market expectation was a total of 212,000 people.
  • U.S:The US Department of Commerce announced that the growth rate of durable goods orders in September was revised down to 0.7% from 0.8%.
  • Euro-zone:IHS MARKIT reported that the seasonally adjusted UK Construction PMI posted its second-highest level in 16 months in October, spiking to 53.2 from September's value of 52.1.
  • Euro-zone:The German Federal Statistical Office announced that Germany's import price index slowed from 4.8% in the previous year to 4.4%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.5%; monthly rebound by 0.4%, in line with market expectations.
  • Euro-zone:Eurozone's preliminary GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in the third quarter, representing the smallest acceleration since the year 2014, Eurostat data revealed. Investors initially projected an advancement of 0.4%.
  • Japan:According to data from the Bank of Japan, Japan’s base currency rose by 5.9% year-on-year to 501.6198 trillion yen in October. However, the seasonally adjusted base currency surged 9.6% year-on-year to 501.0162 trillion yen.
  • Japan:According to the data from Nikkei, Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 52.9 in October from 52.5 in September. It has been expanding for 26 consecutive months, the longest expansion period since the global financial crisis.
  • Australia:According to data from TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute, Australia TD-MI inflation index slowed down to 1.9% year-on-year from 2.1%; monthly growth slowed down to 0.1% form 0.3% in September.
China Market Commentary
Economic-related news

  • Xi Jinping attended the opening ceremony of the first China International Import Expo today and delivered a speech. He said china will support the China Pilot Free Trade Zone to have an innovation reform.

  • According to Caixin, the Caixin services PMI retreated sharply monthly to 50.8 in October, being the lowest since October 2017.
 
 
 

Market Expected to Rebound Under Sino-U.S. Leader’s Call
 

China-U.S. trade conflict dominates market sentiment in 2018. The escalating trade dispute between China and the United States since march has caused the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong to fall for six consecutive months, breaking its record since 1982, even in the period of Financial Tsunami and Asian Financial Crisis. On Thursday, U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke by phone about trade and other bilateral issues. A turnaround in relations between China and the United States has improved sentiment, and the Hang Seng Index is expected to end its six-months negative streak.

Kindness was shown on the U.S. side
According to the statement, the call is likely to resume negotiations on Sino-U.S. relations. First of all, trump actively released his good attitude and supported American enterprises to participate in the first China International Import Expo held by China. That means the U.S. still wants to continue expanding exports to China.

Trump is also looking forward to meeting China at the G20 summit in Argentina later this month to discuss trade issue. With nearly a month to go until the end of the month, there is plenty of time to work out the details of the trade deal. More importantly, U.S. did not mention the preconditions for negotiations, giving room for a deal.

China responds positively
China has also responded positively to the U.S. request. China mentioned the upcoming first international import expo, which aims to release the milestone event of China's efforts to increase imports and expand market development. Second, China's customs department issued a notice in October to lower some import tariff rates and honor its commitment to about market reform.

Hong Kong stocks conditions for bounces
A long fall is not the normal situation for Hong Kong stocks, which are oversold by the market and have conditions for a rebound. First, an increase in corporate buybacks is a precursor to a rebound. The Hong Kong market recorded 2.59 billion yuan in repurchases in October, the highest level since September 2011. Historically, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound when corporate buybacks rise sharply.

Second, from a technical analysis of view, the Hang Seng Index RSI ranges between 30 and 75. When the index fell to 30, the probability of a rebound in Hong Kong stocks. At one point in late October, it hit 30.

Finally, dynamic valuations suggest that the Hang Seng index's forward P/E ratio has fallen one standard deviation below the historical average level. Hong Kong stocks are very attractive at current valuations.

In summary, China's "policy bottom" has emerged, creating favorable conditions for a rebound in Hong Kong stocks. As long as U.S. money flow does not violent fluctuations, Hong Kong stocks can rebound in November.
 
 
 
指數投資 寄生效率市場
 

上次文章（10月16日見報）談的公地悲劇（Tragedy of the Commons），不是指數投資唯一問題。在市場指數更換成分股前一天臨收市前，被剔除的成分股股價會下跌.....
 
 
新興市場展現投資價值
 

去年年總回報近38%的MSCI新興市場指數，由年初至十月底已下跌超過15%。至於全年跌幅會否超過2015年(17%)或2011年(20%)，仍是未知之數.....
 
 
 
As of 2018/11/02
 
Equity Indexes

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

USA DJIA
25,270.83
2.36%
2.23%
USA S&P500
2,723.06
2.42%
1.85%
USA NASDAQ
7,356.99
2.65%
6.57%
UK FTSE 100
7,094.12
2.23%
-7.72%
Germany DAX
11,518.99
2.84%
-10.83%
France CAC
5,102.13
2.71%
-3.96%
Japan Nikkei 225
22,243.66
5.00%
-2.29%
Australia ASX 200
5,849.21
3.25%
-3.56%
Korea KOSPI
2,096.00
3.40%
-15.06%
Hong Kong Hang Seng
26,486.35
7.16%
-11.47%
Hong Kong HSCEI
10,687.77
6.25%
-8.72%
China SHCOMP
2,676.48
2.99%
-19.07%
China SZCOMP
1,351.09
4.69%
-28.87%
Taiwan Taipei Weighted
9,906.59
4.40%
-6.92%
India Sensex
35,011.65
4.98%
2.80%
Russia RTS
1,134.80
3.32%
-1.70%
Brazil Bovespa
88,419.05
3.15%
15.73%
In local currency terms

Fixed Income /Interbank Rate

Latest Level

Weekly Change (bp)

31 Dec 2017 Level

US–2 years
2.90%
10
1.88%
US–10 years
3.21%
14
2.41%
German–10 years
0.43%
8
0.43%
Japan–10 years
0.13%
2
0.05%
Libor–overnight
2.17%
0
1.43%
Libor–1 month
2.32%
2
1.56%
Libor–3 months
2.59%
7
1.69%
Euribor–1 month
-0.37%
0
-0.37%
Euribor–3 months
-0.32%
0
-0.33%
Shibor–1 month
2.69%
2
4.94%
Shibor–3 month
2.98%
3
4.91%
Hibor–overnight
0.46%
-4
1.34%
Hibor–1 month
1.11%
-37
1.19%
Hibor–3 months
2.10%
-4
1.31%
Note: 1 bp = 0.01 percentage point

Commodity (Spot) / Currency

Latest Level

Weekly Change

YTD Change

Crude oil (NYMEX)
63.14
-6.58%
4.50%
Gold ($/oz)
1232.95
-0.01%
-5.38%
S&P GS Commodity Idx
450.5379
-3.75%
1.83%
RJ/CRB Commodity Idx
198.5007
-1.59%
0.79%
BDIY – Baltic Dry Index
1470
-3.23%
7.61%
EUR – USD
1.1449
0.87%
-4.43%
GBP – USD
1.3029
1.84%
-3.47%
AUD – USD
0.7254
3.10%
-7.20%
USD – JPY
112.85
0.81%
0.28%
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
 
 
 
 
Country/
Region
Economic Indicator
Date of Release

Country/Region
Economic Indicator
Date of Release
US
Markit US Composite PMI (Oct)
05/11
PPI (Sep)
06/11
MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov)
07/11
Retail Sales (Sep)
07/11
Consumer Credit (Sep)
08/11
Japan
Nikkei Japan PMI Composite (Oct)
05/11
PPI Final Demand (Oct)
09/11
BoP Current Account Balance (Sep)
08/11
U. of Mich. Sentiment (Nov)
09/11
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Nov)
08/11
Eurozone
U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation (Nov)
09/11
China
Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Nov)
08/11
Sentix Investor Confidence (Nov)
05/11
Trade Balance (Oct)
08/11
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (Oct)
06/11
CPI (Oct)
09/11
 
 
 
 
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Risk Disclosure: Investors should be aware that some of the investment products exercise leverages through derivatives such as futures and options, so the risks involved in investing in such products may be higher than other investments. Fund prices may rise as well as fall. There is no guarantee that fund investments can achieve overall investment objectives.